The upcoming domestic elections in Belgium could result in a significant transformation of its political landscape, with the Flemish separatist party Vlaams Belang projected to win the most seats, potentially reshaping the debate over Belgian unity and independence for Flanders.
On June 9, 2024, Belgium, one of the founding members of the European Union, will hold domestic elections that could lead to significant changes in its political landscape. The Flemish separatist party, Vlaams Belang (VB), led by Tom Van Grieken, is expected to win the most seats, potentially securing 27 parliamentary positions. The New Flemish Alliance (NVA), another right-wing party, is projected to secure around 20 seats.
Belgium is currently divided into three regions: Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north, French-speaking Wallonia in the south, and the bilingual Brussels-Capital region. The election results could intensify the debate over Belgian unity. Vlaams Belang advocates for complete Flemish independence, aiming to dissolve Belgium as a formal entity through a “declaration of sovereignty.” In contrast, the NVA favors a confederal state where Belgium would retain authority over major policy areas like defense, but regional governments would control other legislative powers.
Despite the groundswell of support for Flemish independence, achieving it would be complex. Vlaams Belang and the NVA would need to negotiate with French-speaking parties to arrange any separation. Belgian political dynamics further complicate this, as the largest party rarely sees its leader become prime minister. Additionally, a cordon sanitaire exists to prevent Vlaams Belang from gaining power.
The outcome of these elections could lead to profound changes in Belgium’s structure, although it remains uncertain if full independence for Flanders will be realized.
