Israel faces critical decisions on its postwar strategy in Gaza as Hamas regroups, with options ranging from full-scale military occupation to negotiated ceasefires. The dilemma intensifies as international pressure mounts and humanitarian conditions worsen in the conflict-torn region.
Israel Faces Postwar Options in Gaza as Hamas Regroups
May 23, 2024 – Israel-Gaza Border
After seven months of intense conflict, Israel is now facing crucial decisions regarding its postwar strategy in Gaza as Hamas shows signs of regrouping. Despite initial military advances, Israel is currently engaged in a protracted struggle against an insurgency emanating from northern Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and political rival Benny Gantz to devise clear postwar plans. Both retired generals fear a lengthy re-occupation of Gaza, from which Israel withdrew in 2005. They are also against any move that would ultimately leave Hamas in control or result in a Palestinian state.
Several potential postwar scenarios are under consideration:
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Full-Scale Military Occupation: Netanyahu seeks a “total victory” to eliminate Hamas, but such a plan would require long-term military presence and could involve significant costs and responsibilities, including health and education services for 2.3 million Palestinians.
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Lighter Occupation with External Aid: Aimed at maintaining security control while delegating civilian administration to local non-Hamas entities with Arab and international assistance. However, this scenario lacks domestic and international support.
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U.S.-Backed Middle East Peace Initiative: Involves a reformed Palestinian Authority governing Gaza with aid from Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, contingent on a credible path to Palestinian statehood—something Netanyahu opposes.
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Negotiated Ceasefire with Hamas: Hamas proposes a phased agreement exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli military withdrawal, and a prolonged ceasefire. While this might allow Hamas to retain control and rebuild, some Israelis support this as the most viable way to secure the release of hostages.
Amidst these deliberations, 35,386 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis have been reported killed since the conflict began on October 7, 2023. Subsequently, European nations Spain, Norway, and Ireland recognized Palestinian statehood, intensifying diplomatic pressure on Israel.
As the conflict persists, humanitarian conditions in Gaza deteriorate, raising international concerns and complicating the geopolitical landscape.