Labour is projected to win 422 seats in the UK, securing a 194-seat majority in a historic landslide victory over the Conservatives, according to a YouGov MRP prediction released on June 3, 2024. This would surpass the majority achieved by Tony Blair in the 1997 general election.

The Conservative Party is forecast to lose 223 seats, reducing their representation to just 140, the worst performance since 1906. Prominent Tory MPs, including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, are expected to lose their seats.

The prediction, based on data from over 58,000 individuals, suggests Labour will make significant gains in traditionally Conservative constituencies, especially in the North of England, such as Leeds North West, Bury North, and Bury South. Labour is also poised to dominate London, potentially winning 65 seats to the Tories’ four.

The Green Party might secure a new seat in Bristol Central, and the Liberal Democrats are projected to increase their seats to 48, up from 11 in 2019. Despite standing over 300 candidates, Reform UK is not expected to win any seats. However, Nigel Farage’s recent announcement to lead Reform UK and run for an MP may impact Conservative votes, especially in Clacton, Essex, where he is contesting.

In summary, YouGov’s data indicates a significant electoral shift with Labour on track for a historic victory and the Conservatives facing major losses.